The year 2024 is being acknowledged as the year of change by many, as more than two dozen countries are having general elections. Changes in governments in such a huge number of countries will have a colossal impact on global politics. However, the most significant elections among all of these are the presidential elections of the United States of America (USA). The US, being one of the contemporary superpowers in the world, plays a pivotal role in molding the contours of global politics. Therefore, people around the world have their eyes on the upcoming US Presidential elections.
These elections will have a significant impact on the lives of the people living in different regions, especially the Middle East, Europe, South America, and the Indo-Pacific. Analysts and governments around the world are assuming that former US President Donald J. Trump is highly likely to regain power in the upcoming Presidential elections. Therefore, many analysts are trying to analyze the future prospects of US engagement with the world, especially the global south.
Polarized politics in the United States often paralyzes the Congress and leads to instability and unreliability in US engagement with other countries, which proves detrimental for the country amidst increasing competition with its competitors at the global level – Russia and China. This polarization even resulted in disapproval of aid to Israel, one of the country’s closest allies, in the US Congress and has augmented other domestic challenges as well. Trump’s tremendous victory in New Hampshire has strengthened the prospects of his return to power in the United States. This induced fear and anxiety among different US allies and partners, especially Europe. Trump’s victory resulted in the disruption of Congress’ progress on a $100 bn aid bill for Ukraine and Israel.
Trump’s “America First” policy will further deteriorate the United States’ position as a global superpower, as he believes in minimum foreign involvement and giving priority to the economic interests of the country will create a vacuum for Russia and China to fulfill the needs of the developing world more inclusively. In his previous tenure, he commenced building a wall at the southern border of the country and blocked a bilateral immigration bill to minimize the immigration of people from Latin America into the US. Hundreds of miles of this wall were constructed during his tenure. However, President Joe Biden suspended the construction of this wall. Prospects are high that Latin America will face much more stringent restrictions under Trump’s presidency in the United States. He “America First” will also undermine the Indo-US collaboration, especially on the IMEC project.
The US policies towards China remained almost identical under Trump and Joe Biden. Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. President Joe Biden not only kept those tariffs intact but also added technological restrictions. China accused Biden of initiating a confrontational competition. However, Biden is blemished for his failure on numerous fronts. His mismanagement of the Afghan withdrawal, failure to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict peacefully, and support of Israeli genocide in Gaza earned him a bad repute. This not only isolated the US globally but has also raised questions about the credibility of the country. The United States’ repeated vetoes of UN resolutions demanding a peaceful ceasefire in Gaza resulted in decreasing his support even among the Democrats. However, the US policy will remain the same under Trump 2.0 as he is also a staunch supporter of Israel. He has also backed Israeli genocide in Gaza in his speeches. Therefore, there is no possibility that the plight of the people of the Middle East might change.
However, Trump’s rhetoric about the Ukraine issue raises some optimism for the people seeking a peaceful resolution. Again, pursuing his “America First” policy, he is against US economic or military intervention in any foreign affair. He has committed that he can end this conflict within 24 hours. But this is something which perturbs Europe. Moreover, following his impulsive instinct, he has taken a hardline towards the NATO allies. He held during his electoral campaign that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies that are not sharing the economic burden of the organization. Trump had been critical of NATO allies in his previous tenure as well, but such a harsh remark has further made European leaders anxious. However, this level of anxiety among the US allies has opened doors of opportunities for the new superpowers of the world – China and Russia.
Although due to Trump’s impulsive and capricious nature, it is hard to predict his policies with certainty, given his electoral campaign and his previous tenure, it could be assumed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict might be solved peacefully under his tenure. Trump is likely to force Ukraine to resolve its conflict with Russia peacefully in pursuit of his America First policy. Furthermore, his harsh rhetoric towards NATO members portends that the European countries may not bank on the United States for their support, which will further enhance peace prospects in the world. The European leaders will have to look towards Russia and China in case of disruption or decline of their relations with Washington.
Wang Yi, a top Chinese diplomat, while addressing at the Munich Security Conference, affirmed that China will continue to be a force for stability in the world. This seems to be a message from China to the European nations at a time when relations between Washington and Europe could deteriorate in the future if Trump gains powers. Russia will also have an upper hand, in its relations with Europe, as the latter will have no support from one of the biggest funders of NATO. Similarly, Trump might like to resolve issues with rival nations through negotiations rather than militarily. However, Latin America and the Middle East might suffer even more during his tenure due to his stringent immigration policies and his staunch advocacy of Israel.
Abbas Hashemite – is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist, exclusively for “New Eastern Outlook”.